2008 VoIP predictions
Here are my top 10 predictions for 2008 ....
1. Web mashup will stay hot. Old wine in new bottles mostly. I expect to see old VoIP applications being revived just because of the timing factor. Social networking will drive a lot of this.
2. Will see some of the legacy service providers also trying the ad supported telephony. Perhaps a two tier service: one with ads and one without.
3. Wireless VoIP: Mobile operators and MVNOs will launch private labelled Voice-over-Wireless-Broadband (VoWB), with the solutions coming from the existing VoWB providers. A few operators will start their own VoWB services letting consumers leverage the integrated SIP client capability in smartphones, or by trying to occupy the mobile screen with their own softclients. Within the mobile telephony arbitrage play, mobile callback will start to lose appeal. VoWB will strengthen in comparison. Packetized Wireless Trunking will take a back seat because consumer VoWB does not need a managed packet core. VoIP over WiMAX will gain traction during 2008 as service providers in emerging markets add VoIP to their already deployed WiMAX network.
4. The quiet revolution on the fixed VoBB side will continue. Countries where VoIP was not given the lead role to kill call charges will continue to see consumer VoIP as a spectator. These countries include China and India. On the fixed VoBB side, we could also see possible re-packaging of VoIP over Fiber for those service providers whose VoIP over DSL failed.
5. Acquisitions and IPOs: Although it is too early for the VoWB segment, but it is possible to see some VoWB acquisition during 2008. In general however I don’t see many VoIP acquisitions during 2008. Regarding IPOs, NexPoint and Metaswitch are some possibilities. Cisco might look into some kind of a mobile handset acquistion.
6. There will be a lot of emphasis on green this and green that. This will mainly come from the legacy vendors. Some mid sized vendors might also join the party especially since the pitch seems common i.e. ‘we save you some power’. Obviously the Telepresence providers will make a lot of noise here among the telecom companies.
7. VoIP equipment licensing will start to see a paradigm shift. New licensors will be web oriented companies who come from the web world promoting mashup features as their primary platform capability. The existing web oriented VoIP companies will start productizing their solutions.
8. We will see more triple play ASPs come to market. These will be web based companies that offer you VoIP, TV, as well as some kind of social networking.
9. Service providers will explore offering Microsoft IP PBX as a service on a hosted basis like the hosted MS Exchange Server.
10. Europe will be the hottest for wireless VoIP in 2008. North America will be the hottest for voice-and-web mashups.
