The report reveals that the US cellular operators are headed toward a loss of $3.3 billion a year by 2011 due to FMC. FMC, being trialed by over 250 service providers worldwide, has so far been handled with caution by the cellular operators who are not certain whether FMC will have a positive or a negative impact on them in the long run. The report offers first firm estimates of revenue losses/gain for cellular operators due to FMC. Sensitivity analysis shows that cellular operators in the US need to gain over 70 percent of the FMC market to balance the loss. The other way to balance the impact is to secure migration from fixed to FMC accounts. In the latter case, US cellular operators would need to own at least 78 percent of such FMC subscriptions. In a similar analysis for the UK, cellular operators there stand to lose $1.3 billion a year by 2011 due to FMC. The report analysis the impact of FMC in 12 countries.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1. THE CONCEPT OF FMC
2. FACTORS DRIVING GROWTH OF FMC
2.1 Growth of Mobile Telephony
2.2 VoIP Growth
2.3 Broadband and WiFi
2.4 In-house Mobile Coverage
2.5 Enterprise VoWLAN
2.6 Triple Play and Quadruple Play Services
2.7 Improving the Economics of Delivering Calls
2.8 Exploring New Opportunities
3. FMC MARKET TRENDS
3.1 Update on Service Provider Trials
3.2 Market Entry for Fixed Providers: MNO / MVNO / Mobile Agnostic
3.3 Pricing models for FMC services
3.4 Regional Comparison
3.5 Residential Versus Enterprise FMC Offerings
3.6 Options Implemented Vis-à-Vis Network Types
3.7 Options Implemented Vis-à-Vis Standards, and Factors Determining their Selection
3.7.1 Existing Infrastructure
3.7.2 Time Factor
3.7.3 Long Term Objectives
3.7.4 CAPEX
3.7.5 Services Mix
3.7.6 Target Market
3.8 With IMS or Without: FMC Marches On
3.9 VCC Activity Update 2006
3.10 The Femtocell Option
4. SERVICE PROVIDER CASE STUDIES
4.1 BT Case Study
4.1.1 FMC Service Details and Target Market
4.1.2 Vendor Selection
4.1.3 From Trial to Launch
4.1.4 Since Launch
4.2 Orange Case Study
4.2.1 FMC Service Details and Target Market
4.2.2 Vendor Selection
4.2.3 From Trial to Launch
4.2.4 Since Launch
4.3 Telecom Italia Case Study
4.3.1 FMC Service Details and Target Market
4.3.2 Vendor Selection
4.3.3 From Trial to Launch
4.3.4 Since Launch
4.4. Hello AS Case Study
4.4.1 Background
4.4.2 FMC Service Details and Target Market
4.2.3 Vendor Selection
4.4.4 From Trial to Launch
4.4.5 Since Launch
4.5 TeliaSonera Case Study
4.5.1 FMC Service Details and Target Market
4.5.2 From Trial to Launch
4.5.3 Since Launch
4.5.4 Vendor Selection
4.6.1 O2 Case Study
4.6.2 FMC Service Details and Target Market
4.6.3 From Trial to Launch
4.6.4 Selection of Vendors
4.7 Cable and Wireless Case Study
4.7.1 FMC Service Details and Target Market
4.7.2 From Trial to Launch
4.7.3 Selection of Vendors
4.8 Global Crossing Case Study
4.8.1 FMC Service Details and Target Market
4.8.2 From Trial to Launch
4.8.3 Selection of Vendors
4.9 Eurocom Case Study
4.9.1 Background
4.9.2 FMC Service Details and Target Market
4.9.3 From Trial to Launch
4.9.4 Selection of Vendors
4.10 PMN Case Study
4.10.1 Background
4.10.2 FMC Service Details and Target Market
4.10.3 Since Launch
4.10.4 Vendor Selection
5. FMC SUBSCRIBER NUMBERS AND FORECASTS
6. THE FMC VENDOR SPACE
6.1 The FMC Network Components
6.2 Self-Positioning by FMC Vendors
6.3 Varied Background of FMC Startup Vendors
6.4 Early Stage Competition Among Vendors
6.5 Present Phase Vendor Ranking
7. VENDOR SWOT ANALYSIS
7.1 Accuris Networks
7.2 Alcatel
7.3 ARRIS
7.4 Azaire Networks
7.5 BridgePort Networks
7.6 Centile
7.7 Cicero Networks
7.8 Convergin
7.9 DiVitas Networks
7.10 FirstHand Technologies
7.11 Kineto Wireless
7.12 Mavenir
7.13 NetCentrex / Comverse
7.14 NewStep Networks
7.15 Outsmart Telecom
7.16 Personeta
7.17 ReefPoint
7.18 Sonus Networks
7.19 Stoke
7.20 Tatara Systems
7.21 Telegrupp
7.22 Tekelec
7.23 UTStarcom
8. FMC CHALLENGES 2007
8.1 Beyond Handover
8.2 Multimedia Session Continuity
8.3 Enabling Wider Coverage
8.4 Handset Availability
8.5 Mobile Handset Agnostic Offerings
8.6 FMC Security
8.7 QoS Mechanism
8.8 Enterprise Controlled Solutions
8.9 Scalability and Flexibility of FMC Solution
8.10 Co-ordination and Integration of FMC Platforms
8.11 Marketing Strategy and Pricing Models
8.12 Articulating End-User Benefits
9. FMC AS MARKET OPPORTUNITY: COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS
9.1 Opportunities for Fixed Operators
9.2 Opportunities for Cellular Operators
10. IMPACT OF FMC ON CELLULAR OPERATORS WORLDWIDE
10.1 Sources of Revenue Gain
10.2 Sources of Revenue Loss
10.3 Net Impact on Cellular Operators
10.4 Model for Estimating Net Impact
10.5 Qualitative and Quantitative Assumptions
11. NET IMPACT OF FMC ON CELLULAR OPERATORS
11.1 United States
11.1.1 FMC Subscriber and Revenue Forecasts
11.1.2 Net Impact of FMC on United States Cellular Industry
11.1.3 Sensitivity Analysis of Assumptions
11.2 Canada
11.2.1 FMC Subscriber and Revenue Forecasts
11.2.2 Net Impact of FMC on Canadian Cellular Industry
11.2.3 Sensitivity Analysis of Assumptions
11.3 United Kingdom
11.3.1 FMC Subscriber and Revenue Forecasts
11.3.2 Net Impact of FMC on United Kingdom Cellular Industry
11.3.3 Sensitivity Analysis of Assumptions
11.4 France
11.4.1 FMC Subscriber and Revenue Forecasts
11.4.2 Net Impact of FMC on French Cellular Industry
11.4.3 Sensitivity Analysis of Assumptions
11.5 Germany
11.5.1 FMC Subscriber and Revenue Forecasts
11.5.2 Net Impact of FMC on German Cellular Industry
11.5.3 Sensitivity Analysis of Assumptions
11.6 Italy
11.6.1 FMC Subscriber and Revenue Forecasts
11.6.2 Net Impact of FMC on Italian Cellular Industry
11.6.3 Sensitivity Analysis of Assumptions
11.7 Japan
11.7.1 FMC Subscriber and Revenue Forecasts
11.7.2 Net Impact of FMC on Japanese Cellular Industry
11.7.3 Sensitivity Analysis of Assumptions
11.8. Hong Kong
11.8.1 FMC Subscriber and Revenue Forecasts
11.8.2 Net Impact of FMC on Hong Kong Cellular Industry
11.8.3 Sensitivity Analysis of Assumptions
11.9 Singapore
11.9.1 FMC Subscriber and Revenue Forecasts
11.9.2 Net Impact of FMC on Singapore Cellular Industry
11.9.3 Sensitivity Analysis of Assumptions
11.10 China
11.10.1 FMC Subscriber and Revenue Forecasts
11.10.2 Net Impact of FMC on Chinese Cellular Industry
11.10.3 Sensitivity Analysis of Assumptions
11.11 India
11.11.1 FMC Subscriber and Revenue Forecasts
11.11.2 Net Impact of FMC on Indian Cellular Industry
11.11.3 Sensitivity Analysis of Assumptions
11.12 South Korea
11.12.1 FMC Subscriber and Revenue Forecasts
11.12.2 Net Impact of FMC on South Korean Cellular Industry
11.12.3 Sensitivity Analysis of Assumptions
12. CONCLUSIONS
FIGURES AND TABLES
Figure 1.1: FMC infrastructure setup
Figure 3.1: Service provider trials secured by different vendors
Table 3.1: Selection of UMA and IMS/Pre-IMS options by different service providers
Table 3.2: FMC tariffs of service providers worldwide
Table 5.1: FMC Commercial offerings with service details.
Figure 3.2. FMC options and factors determining their selection
Table 5.2: FMC subscribers of various service providers worldwide at the end of 2006
Figure 5.1: FMC subscribers worldwide (2007-2011)
Table 5.3: FMC subscribers worldwide and the revenue generated. 2007-2011
Figure 5.2: FMC services worldwide revenue (2007-2011)
Table 6.1: Vendor market share ranking, in (1) UMA deployments, (2) Pre-IMS/VCC deployments, and (3) overall FMC deployments
Table 7.1 Accuris Networks SWOT analysis
Table 7.2 Alcatel SWOT analysis
Table 7.3 ARRIS SWOT analysis
Table 7.4 Azaire Networks SWOT analysis
Table 7.5 BridgePort Networks SWOT analysis
Table 7.6 Centile SWOT analysis
Table 7.7 Cicero Networks SWOT analysis
Table 7.8 Convergin SWOT analysis
Table 7.9 DiVitas Networks SWOT analysis
Table 7.10 FirstHand Technologies SWOT analysis
Table 7.11 Kineto Wireless SWOT analysis
Table 7.12 Mavenir SWOT analysis
Table 7.13 NetCentrex / Comverse SWOT analysis
Table 7.14 NewStep Networks SWOT analysis
Table 7.15 Outsmart Telecom SWOT analysis
Table 7.16 Personeta SWOT analysis
Table 7.17 ReefPoint SWOT analysis
Table 7.18 Sonus Networks SWOT analysis
Table 7.19 Stoke SWOT analysis
Table 7.20 Tatara Systems SWOT analysis
Table 7.21 Telegrupp SWOT analysis
Table 7.22 Tekelec SWOT analysis
Table 7.23 UTStarcom SWOT analysis
Table 11.1 Quantitative assumptions made for estimating impact of FMC on cellular operators
Table 11.2 FMC Subscriber and Revenue Forecasts: United States
Figure 11.1 Net Impact of FMC on United States Cellular Industry
Table 11.3 Sensitivity Analysis of Assumptions
Table 11.4 FMC Subscriber and Revenue Forecasts: Canada
Table 11.5 Sensitivity Analysis of Assumptions
Figure 11.2 Net Impact of FMC on Canadian Cellular Industry
Table 11.6 Sensitivity Analysis of Assumptions
Table 11.7 FMC Subscriber and Revenue Forecasts: United Kingdom
Figure 11.3 Net Impact of FMC on United Kingdom Cellular Industry
Table 11.8 Sensitivity Analysis of Assumptions
Table 11.9 FMC Subscriber and Revenue Forecasts: France
Figure 11.4 Net Impact of FMC on French Cellular Industry
Table 11.10 Sensitivity Analysis of Assumptions
Table 11.11 FMC Subscriber and Revenue Forecasts: Germany
Figure 11.5 Net Impact of FMC on German Cellular Industry
Table 11.12 Sensitivity Analysis of Assumptions
Table 11.13 FMC Subscriber and Revenue Forecasts: Italy
Figure 11.6 Net Impact of FMC on Italian Cellular Industry
Table 11.14 Sensitivity Analysis of Assumptions
Table 11.15 FMC Subscriber and Revenue Forecasts: Japan
Figure 11.7 Net Impact of FMC on Japanese Cellular Industry
Table 11.16 Sensitivity Analysis of Assumptions
Table 11.17 FMC Subscriber and Revenue Forecasts: Hong Kong
Figure 11.8 Net Impact of FMC on Hong Kong Cellular Industry
Table 11.18 Sensitivity Analysis of Assumptions
Table 11.19 FMC Subscriber and Revenue Forecasts: Singapore
Figure 11.9 Net Impact of FMC on Singapore Cellular Industry
Table 11.20 Sensitivity Analysis of Assumptions
Table 11.21 FMC Subscriber and Revenue Forecasts: China
Figure 11.10 Net Impact of FMC on Chinese Cellular Industry
Table 11.22 Sensitivity Analysis of Assumptions
Table 11.23 FMC Subscriber and Revenue Forecasts: India
Figure 11.11 Net Impact of FMC on Indian Cellular Industry
Table 11.24 Sensitivity Analysis of Assumptions
Table 11.25 FMC Subscriber and Revenue Forecasts: South Korea
Figure 11.12 Net Impact of FMC on South Korean Cellular Industry
Table 11.26 Sensitivity Analysis of Assumptions
